Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 9.483051 10.546683 11.730426 13.155172 14.836413 16.773526 19.198300
2025-04-20 8.694735 10.209571 12.034452 14.433833 17.566444 21.608515 27.378746
2025-04-27 7.928965 9.640115 11.811127 14.843033 19.098262 25.078674 34.570175
2025-05-04 7.061606 8.788318 11.057659 14.363490 19.252347 26.580037 39.229780
2025-05-11 6.655314 8.472941 10.946075 14.705271 20.574331 30.000669 47.890572
2025-05-18 6.168990 7.988526 10.530078 14.522253 21.028687 32.087409 54.854918
2025-05-25 5.766718 7.578934 10.169205 14.358901 21.460070 34.188205 62.567640
2025-06-01 5.451827 7.263974 9.910386 14.311457 22.058955 36.698896 72.158403
2025-06-08 5.105063 6.873818 9.500043 13.963486 22.061474 38.038196 79.557995
2025-06-15 4.874150 6.637935 9.304448 13.946157 22.657060 40.714978 91.762972
2025-06-22 4.548614 6.237224 8.818153 13.377249 22.114707 40.805566 96.652740
2025-06-29 4.241178 5.847152 8.323084 12.748058 21.372862 40.301578 99.547305
2025-07-06 3.979756 5.523952 7.930618 12.295764 20.989436 40.714017 106.396933
2025-07-13 4.046285 5.716997 8.396732 13.453792 24.139321 50.778109 157.777120
2025-07-20 3.962795 5.663245 8.441856 13.824274 25.661158 57.194816 203.483551
2025-07-27 3.752826 5.391642 8.092858 13.390160 25.264875 57.946791 221.357045
2025-08-03 3.677758 5.336946 8.117157 13.699619 26.688228 64.836781 288.424827
2025-08-10 3.536158 5.163535 7.918676 13.533945 26.914904 67.938855 337.031123
2025-08-17 3.407504 5.005339 7.737278 13.386003 27.164684 71.257679 397.171686
2025-08-24 3.302538 4.882038 7.611326 13.343023 27.685805 75.840318 486.559366
2025-08-31 3.167619 4.701323 7.369216 13.027611 27.421168 77.290557 547.345398
2025-09-07 3.080729 4.599557 7.267952 13.011895 27.990894 82.477036 688.507146
2025-09-14 2.934884 4.389590 6.952958 12.495524 27.059030 80.836588 712.259791